Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Title: Risk assessment of innovative projects: development of forecasting models
Authors: Gorokhovatskyi, Volodymyr
Sergienko, O. A.
Sosnov, Igor
Tatar, Maryna
Shapran, Evgeniy
Keywords: innovative project; life cycle; simulation model; business entities; challenges; scenario modeling; efficiency criterion
Issue Date: 2021
Citation: Risk assessment of innovative projects: development of forecasting models [Electronic resource] / V. Gorokhovatskyi [et al.] // CEUR Workshop Proceedings. – 2021. – Vol. 2927. – Machine Learning Methods and Models, Predictive Analytics and Applications: proc. of the Workshop on the 13th Intern. Sci. Practic. Conf. Modern problems of social and economic systems modelling (MPSESM-W 2021), Kharkiv, Ukraine, April 9, 2021. – Electronic text data. – Kharkiv, 2021. – P. 18-37. – URL:, free (accessed 04.10.2021).
Abstract: The purpose of this article is development a systematic dynamic complex model of generation and risk assessment of innovative project, on the bases of which a scenario modeling of many risks influence arising at certain stages of project implementation in the target area. For article purpose realization, the paper proposes a complex toolkit for modeling the innovative projects risks in the direction of their impact on performance indicators in scenarios, which involves the implementation of the following stages of modeling: Stage 1. Collection and processing of project data; Stage 2. Evaluation of innovation project efficiency indicators; Stage 3. Formation and assessment of many risks of innovation project by components, nature and impact strength; Stage 4. Modeling of innovative project development scenarios. The implemented set of models makes possible to compare all components of efficiency and riskiness, which determine the integrated aggregate level of project risk by components of life cycle risks, target project risks and scenarios depending on environmental factors and managers propensity to take risks, and solves the problem of positioning the real indicators state of innovation project efficiency in a comparative dynamic context based on three-level assessment, due to structural elements of risks and identification of possible and promising deadlines and time horizons by stages of the project life cycle, critical paths and reserves which allow us to achieve the main goal of improving the innovative projects implementation efficiency.
Appears in Collections:Кафедра "Підприємництво, торгівля і логістика"

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Gorokhovatskyi_Risk_assessment_2021.pdf651,21 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Show full item record  Google Scholar

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.