Інформаційна технологія дискретизації поняття "ризик" при управлінні проектами та програмами

Abstract

Показано, що співвідношення для кількісної оцінки ризиків проектної діяльності не може бути практично використане, оскільки ймовірність настання ризикової події не має сенсу як статистична характеристика в проектній діяльності, яка за визначенням унікальна. Запропоновано розглядати окремо ризики складових проекту: технологічної, варіативної та креативної, визначаючи параметри ризику за різними інформаційними технологіями. Підтверджено ефективне використання нових проектно-орієнтованих методів для управління процесом будівництва із використанням операцій транспортування спеціальних вантажів в умовах ризиків, які випливають із протиріччя між виконавцями проекту.

It is shown that the ratio for quantitative assessment of project activity risks cannot be practically used, since the probability of a risk event occurrence does not make sense as a statistical characteristic in the project activity, which by definition is unique. The assessment of risks and opportunities can be qualitative and quantitative. The best option is to do both types of assessments, as well as to regularly re-evaluate the risks and opportunities. It should be noted that the complexity and uncertainty of the listed actions in the risks management directly derives from the uncertainty of the very "risk" concept, which, as a rule, is nonspecific and "blurred". It is proposed to consider separately the risks of the project components: technological, variability and creative, defining the parameters of risk by different information technologies. The aim of the work is to increase the proactive risk management of project activities effectiveness by developing and implementing a new method for assessing the probability of risk events occurrence by decomposing the concept of "risk" within the framework of project management and programs separately for: the technological, variability and creative components of the project, defining the risk parameters for different various components of information technology. In order to achieve this aim, the following tasks were set and solved: the possibilities of evaluating the probability of risk events occurrence separately for the components of the project activity are analyzed; the offered information technologies that allow to determine these probabilities in the planning and management of projects and programs, in particul ar, proactive risk management, signal / noise ratio for numerical risk assessment of the variable component, carried out test results of the research has been proposed. The effective use of new project-oriented methods for the management of the construction process using the operations of special cargoes transportation in the conditions of risks, which arises from the contradiction between the project implementers, has been confirmed.