Формалізована математична модель забезпечення готовності реагування на надзвичайні ситуації

Abstract

Ensuring the protection of the population and territories from emergencies of various kinds is one of the most important tasks of civil protection of the state. The solution to this problem guarantees safeconditions for the life of its citizens by means of prevention, timely response and elimination of the consequences of emergency situations. This requiresa reliable functioning of the emergency response system. Reliability and adequacy of response to emergency situations is ensured by the readiness offorces and means to act in emergency situations. The article has developed a formalized mathematical model that implements the principle ofa systematic approach to solving the problem of ensuring readiness to respond to emergency situations in the state. The mathematical model forensuring preparedness for emergency response includes mathematical models for assessing the potential technical capability of civil protection units to perform tasks as intended; assessing the readiness of civil protection units to act in emergency situations; optimal distribution of limited resources to ensure the readiness of civil protection units to perform tasks as intended; optimization of territorial structures of civil protection, taking into account the state of anthropogenic and naturalthreats to the regions of the country; forecast ofexpenditures of funds for liquidation of emergency situations; forecasting technical and human resources for emergency response. In addition, a control algorithm is proposed that implements a formalized mathematical model. The algorithm provides for the following procedures: collection and analysis of information on the staffing of units with equipment and personnel; assessment of the potential technical capability of units to act in emergency situations; assessment of the readiness of units to respond to and eliminate the consequences of emergencies, organize the material, technical, financial and human support for emergency response; an assessment of the optimization of territorial structures of civil protection, taking into account the state of man-made natural threats to the regions of the country; formation of a solution for responding to emergencysituations and eliminating their consequences, evaluating the effectiveness and correcting decisions based on an analysis of the actions of the response units.