Модели и механизмы повышения конкурентоспособности высшего учебного заведения

Abstract

В статье предложен механизм оценки конкурентоспособности высшего учебного заведения на рынке образовательных услуг на основе имитационного моделирования. Предложена система индикаторов деятельности высшего учебного заведения. Выбор факторов для разработки модели проводился в соответствии с принципом Парето: учитывались параметры, которые оказывают наибольшее влияние на конкурентоспособность университета. Построена когнитивная карта ситуации, определяющая взаимное влияние факторов. Разработана имитационная модель, основанная на интеграции принципов динамики системы и когнитивного моделирования, которая позволяет управлять значениями ключевых параметров. Выбор методологий определяется тем, что имитационная модель является эффективным инструментом моделирования динамических систем с высоким уровнем абстракции и множеством обратных связей. Когнитивный подход позволяет синхронизировать изменения значений параметров и анализировать влияние параметров модели друг на друга. Показана возможность оценки альтернативных сценариев, и прогнозирования на их основе возможных последствий управленческих решений. Приведены результаты моделирования на основе реальных данных.The aim of the research is to improve the efficiency of decision making for increasable of the competitiveness of the university. The article proposes a mechanism for assessing the competitiveness of a higher educational institution in the market of educational services on the basis of simulation modeling. A system of indicators of the activity of a higher educational institution is proposed. The choice of factors for the development of the model was carried out in accordance with the Pareto principle: the parameters that have the greatest impact on the competitiveness of the university are taken into account. A cognitive map of the situation that determines the mutual influence of factors is constructed. A simulation model based on the integration of the principles of system dynamics and cognitive modeling, which allows you to manage the values of key parameters, is developed. The values of the variables in the model can be changed while determining the sensitivity of the vector of the output parameters. Using a method based on specifying control points, a scale of characteristics has been developed for each factor. The possibility of evaluating alternative scenarios and predicting the possible consequences of management decisions based on them is shown. The model based on real data is presented. The main stages of the algorithm for determining competitiveness are as follows: determination of the purpose of the evaluation; determination of the types of activities that are taken into account in the analysis; selection of the reference database; definition of characteristics to be measured; evaluation of selected characteristics; calculation of the generalized, integral indicator of competitiveness; conclusions about competitiveness. As can be seen from the algorithm, the effectiveness of assessing the competitive position of an organization depends on the choice of characteristics, the determination of their relative importance (weight in the overall estimate, %) and the evaluation of these characteristics for the university and its main competitors. To analyze the mutual influence of the competitiveness factors of the university, it is proposed to use a simulation model that combines the principles of system dynamics and cognitive modeling. The choice of development methodologies is determined by the fact that a simulation model is an effective tool for modeling dynamic controlled systems with a high level of abstraction and a multitude of feedbacks. The cognitive approach makes it possible to synchronize changes in parameter values and analyze the influence of model parameters on each other. For the development of the model, the AnyLogic system was selected, combining the possibilities of creating hybrid models based on models of system dynamics, discrete-event models, and the agent approach. The state of the system under investigation can be described using classical approaches of system theory, in particular, cognitive modeling. The cognitive model of a complex, weakly structured system and is represented by a functional graph whose vertices are the main factors (concepts), and the arcs are the connections of the mutual influence of factors on each other. The model of the influence of factors of the university competitiveness on each other is a dynamic system that is determined by a set of parameters and a set of direct and inverse relations between them.