Оцінка ризиків в інноваційних проектах методом достовірних еквівалентів

Abstract

The article describes the concept of "risk of innovation", identified the causes of the risk and the methods of eliminating of negative manifestations of the risk situations in innovative projects. The advantages and disadvantages of the method of correction of the discount rate and the method of equivalent annuities are considered. The methodical approach in assessing of the expected effect of the innovative project based on the concept of probability-interval uncertainty is proposed in the article. It was established that the analyzed approaches can be used for the accounting of the risk of innovative projects. Project manager makes his choice using any method of risk assessment individually, depending on the extent and characteristics of the project, the degree of novelty and scale introduction of innovative products, the number of participants and the level of requirements of foundation of project efficiency and other factors.