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Heuristic Rules for the Dynamic Pricing Problem
(Vilnius University Press, 2023) Melnikov, Oleg
This paper is devoted to the development of heuristics for the dynamic pricing problem. A discrete time model of dynamic pricing on the fixed time horizon is proposed. It is applicable to products that satisfy two properties: 1) product value expires at a certain predetermined date, and 2) consumers demand at most a single unit of the product. This type of demand structure allows deriving a simple system of recursive equations for optimal prices using dynamic programming techniques. Optimal pricing policy is expressed as a function of time to expiration and inventory levels of unsold products. An analytical solution to this problem was obtained for special cases, while for the general case, a numerical algorithm has been developed. Qualitative characteristics of the optimal pricing policy are established, and their implications for dynamics of inventories and prices are discussed. Based on these observations, a simple heuristic rule for dynamic price adjustments is proposed. Performance of this heuristic is evaluated against the optimal dynamic and fixed-price policies using Monte-Carlo experiments. Results demonstrate high efficiency of the proposed heuristic strategy and its even simpler derivatives. Heuristics’ adaptability and ease of implementation should make it suitable and attractive for small and medium businesses.