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Model for Predictive Analysis of International Trade Based on the Dynamics of Stock Indices (Example of Data from the USA, Canada and UK)
(2022) Rudenko, Diana; Serhiienko, Olena; Zeleniy, Oleksandr; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav
Forecasting is one of the tools for assessing the functioning and development of processes, phenomena, objects. This tool has found its application in all areas of research. Among these areas of research, one should single out the direction that is associated with the economy. This is important because such studies help to assess the level of economic development, the welfare of mankind, to find ways for the further functioning and development of various processes, phenomena, objects. To solve the tasks set, various models are used that help to implement a certain forecast scheme. At the same time, the construction of such models involves the implementation of the corresponding stages of modeling. Such modeling steps help determine the type of the final model and implement the required predictive model. Therefore, we pay special attention to the individual stages of predictive modeling. The efficiency of building a predictive model is also determined by the applied problem that needs to be solved in the modeling process. In this paper, we consider the elements of a predictive model for the analysis of international trade. To do this, we use data on the dynamics of stock indices. In particular, we use the dynamics of stock indices, which describe the activities of banking institutions. To build individual elements of the predictive model, we use the apparatus of wavelet theory. Among the tools of wavelet theory, we use wavelet coherence. We also propose an approach for comparing different estimates of wavelet coherence. This approach is based on comparing the corresponding wavelet coherence estimates and visualizing the results. This allows you to better understand the mutual dynamics of stock indices and evaluate the dynamics of international trade. The paper presents various graphs and diagrams that help to understand the logic of the study and the results obtained.
New Data from Wavelet Analysis on the Dynamics of Changes in the International Currency Market
(2022) Lyashenko, Vyacheslav; Serhiienko, Olena; Bilotserkivskyi, Oleksandr
The foreign exchange market is one of the important segments of the financial market. Such attention to the foreign exchange market is due to the fact that it provides stable economic and organizational relationships in the implementation of transactions for the purchase or sale of foreign currency. This, in turn, has a significant impact on the development of international economic relations. Thus, the analysis of the foreign exchange market plays an important role in the evaluation of various economic processes. To analyze the situation in the foreign exchange market, it is necessary to have primary data. As a source of primary data for the foreign exchange market are empirical data on the dynamics of the exchange rate. At the same time, it is necessary to know the dynamics of the exchange rate from the point of view of different countries. This increases the reliability of the results that can be obtained from the corresponding analysis. We can also evaluate the mutual influence on the dynamics of exchange rates from the point of view of individual countries. For such an analysis, we use the ideology of wavelets. This ideology allows the analysis of data presented as a time series. Among the methods of wavelet ideology, we consider wavelet coherence. This approach allows us to evaluate the mutual dynamics of exchange rates for different countries. The paper presents the results for real data. The paper presents many graphs and diagrams that allow you to better understand the progress of our study, interpret the results.
Comparative Analysis of the Dynamics of Futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
(2023) Serhiienko, Olena; Novikova, Tetyana; Lyashenko, Vyacheslav
The stock market plays an important role in the functioning of individual business entities and the development of the financial market as a whole. To understand such dynamics, an important aspect is to study quotes for futures, indices and stocks. Based on this, the paper examines various aspects of conducting a comparative analysis of data on futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. We consider simple aspects of statistical analysis, as well as the mutual dynamics of such indicators. For these purposes, the methodology for estimating wavelet coherence is used. The paper presents graphical estimates of such characteristics. This helps to understand the results obtained.

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