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Публікація Risk assessment of innovative projects: development of forecasting models(2021) Gorokhovatskyi, Volodymyr; Sergienko, Olena; Sosnov, Igor; Tatar, Maryna; Shapran, EvgeniyThe purpose of this article is development a systematic dynamic complex model of generation and risk assessment of innovative project, on the bases of which a scenario modeling of many risks influence arising at certain stages of project implementation in the target area. For article purpose realization, the paper proposes a complex toolkit for modeling the innovative projects risks in the direction of their impact on performance indicators in scenarios, which involves the implementation of the following stages of modeling: Stage 1. Collection and processing of project data; Stage 2. Evaluation of innovation project efficiency indicators; Stage 3. Formation and assessment of many risks of innovation project by components, nature and impact strength; Stage 4. Modeling of innovative project development scenarios. The implemented set of models makes possible to compare all components of efficiency and riskiness, which determine the integrated aggregate level of project risk by components of life cycle risks, target project risks and scenarios depending on environmental factors and managers propensity to take risks, and solves the problem of positioning the real indicators state of innovation project efficiency in a comparative dynamic context based on three-level assessment, due to structural elements of risks and identification of possible and promising deadlines and time horizons by stages of the project life cycle, critical paths and reserves which allow us to achieve the main goal of improving the innovative projects implementation efficiency.Публікація Model Tools of Credit Risks Assessment of Agricultural Enterprises in International Trade(2020) Nashchekina, O. N.; Sergienko, Olena; Sosnov, Igor; Tatar, Maryna; Shapran, EvgeniyThe paper aim is improving the methodological tools for agricultural enterprise's credit risks assessment and classification as participant of international trade market. The proposed approach differs from the existing approaches by complexity and systematicness, on the bases of usage of multilevel factor system of the borrower's assessment by local and aggregate components. The object of research is set of credit risks affecting crediting processes in agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy. The following economic and mathematical methods of scientific research were used: factor and comparative analysis (to highlight classification specific features of agricultural sector crediting), methodology of integrated rating (for rating of local components of risk), methods of factor analysis (to confirm the hypothesis of grouping of agricultural enterprises credit risks by components), hierarchical and iterative methods of cluster analysis (to distinguish agricultural enterprises classes by risk level). The proposed methodology is tested on a sample set of observations for 14 agricultural enterprises of Ukraine for 2018 year for the selected 38 credit risk indicators. On the bases of economic and mathematical tools for estimating and analyzing the aggregate system of agricultural enterprises credit risk indicators, namely the methodology of factor analysis, the hypothesis regarding the grouping and formation of agricultural enterprises credit risk classes has been improved. Five major systemic groups of external and internal risks which are specific to agrarian enterprises are identified: mortgage risks, system providing risks, system forming risks, natural and climatic risks, production risks. The obtained classes by risk level by the studied components on the basis of cluster analysis methods make possible to determine the set of critical and safe states in general and by local components and to choose effective behavior trajectory for agricultural enterprise creditworthiness increasing. The assessment results using proposed methodology laid in the bases of scenarios development of agricultural sector lending, make possible to develop a set of measures for strategic and tactical management of agricultural enterprise's creditworthiness and adjust their behavior in international markets.