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  • Ескіз
    Публікація
    Multi-scale model elaboration for creditworthiness diagnostics of export production enterprises of the agricultural trade market
    (Scientific Route, Estonia, 2019) Sergienko, Olena; Shapran, Olena; Bilotserkivskyi, Oleksandr; Alieksieieva, Iryna
    The methodology for the agrarian enterprises’ creditworthiness diagnostic has been developed and implemented, and has allowed to solve the following objectives: conducting of observations and evaluating of financially-economic indicators, classification of enterprises by the level of creditworthiness, distinction and identification enterprises according to the level of creditworthiness and assessing the differences between classes by creditworthiness, with taking into account the sizes of enterprises. Based on the use of the complex of multidimensional analytical methods, the differences are defined under either one-dimensional evaluation system (by creditworthiness and size) or a two-level assessment of the joint cross impact of factors on creditworthiness. The proposed four-step technology for diagnosing of the agrarian enterprises creditworthiness substantially expands the components of the creditworthiness level evaluation of enterprises and, as a consequence, improves the timeliness of decision-making process about identifying and locating of weaknesses and “bottlenecks”. The coverage of a sufficient number of financial and economic indicators and the implementation of a wide range of methods and models enable to fully evaluate and analyze the existing state of creditworthiness with a view to improve and establish the effective functioning of the enterprise as a whole.
  • Ескіз
    Публікація
    Model Tools of Credit Risks Assessment of Agricultural Enterprises in International Trade
    (2020) Nashchekina, O. N.; Sergienko, Olena; Sosnov, Igor; Tatar, Maryna; Shapran, Evgeniy
    The paper aim is improving the methodological tools for agricultural enterprise's credit risks assessment and classification as participant of international trade market. The proposed approach differs from the existing approaches by complexity and systematicness, on the bases of usage of multilevel factor system of the borrower's assessment by local and aggregate components. The object of research is set of credit risks affecting crediting processes in agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy. The following economic and mathematical methods of scientific research were used: factor and comparative analysis (to highlight classification specific features of agricultural sector crediting), methodology of integrated rating (for rating of local components of risk), methods of factor analysis (to confirm the hypothesis of grouping of agricultural enterprises credit risks by components), hierarchical and iterative methods of cluster analysis (to distinguish agricultural enterprises classes by risk level). The proposed methodology is tested on a sample set of observations for 14 agricultural enterprises of Ukraine for 2018 year for the selected 38 credit risk indicators. On the bases of economic and mathematical tools for estimating and analyzing the aggregate system of agricultural enterprises credit risk indicators, namely the methodology of factor analysis, the hypothesis regarding the grouping and formation of agricultural enterprises credit risk classes has been improved. Five major systemic groups of external and internal risks which are specific to agrarian enterprises are identified: mortgage risks, system providing risks, system forming risks, natural and climatic risks, production risks. The obtained classes by risk level by the studied components on the basis of cluster analysis methods make possible to determine the set of critical and safe states in general and by local components and to choose effective behavior trajectory for agricultural enterprise creditworthiness increasing. The assessment results using proposed methodology laid in the bases of scenarios development of agricultural sector lending, make possible to develop a set of measures for strategic and tactical management of agricultural enterprise's creditworthiness and adjust their behavior in international markets.