Статистичне дослідження виробництва електроенергії в Україні за 2014-2015 р.

Abstract

Досліджено сучасний стан та тенденції розвитку електроенергетики України. Розглянуто виробництво електроенергії в Україні за кварталами 2014-2015 рр. Розраховано аналітичні показники ряду динаміки. З ряду динаміки виділено тренд, сезонну та випадкову складові. Побудовано одночленні та двохчленні регресійні моделі. Перевірено неавтокорельованість залишків, використовувався критерій Неймана. Зроблено точковий прогноз виробництва електроенергії на 2016 рік.

The current state and trends of electro-energy in Ukraine were investigated. Ukrainian electro-energy production for quarters of 2014-2015 was analyzed. Basis and chain time series parameters were analytically calculated. It was concluded that in the 4 quarter of 2015 electro-energy production increased compared to the 1 quarter of 2014. The highest energy production growth rate was in the 2 quarter of 2014 and the lowest one was in the 2 quarter of 2015. Absolute value of the 1 % growth quarterly reduced in 2015. This means that the development of electric power energy is positive and its indicators are increasing. From the time series the trend, seasonal and random components were obtained. For a trend selection the linear regression model was constructed. But it had weak relationship closeness between variables. Therefore one- and two-term autoregressive models were constructed. A non-autocorrelation of random errors was tested using Neumann criteria. With a high level of confidence it was shown the adequacy of calculated models. It was shown that the second model term has a little effect on the calculation results. Then seasonal wave was analyzed. It was shown that the electro-energy production was increased in the middle of year and was decreased at the end of year. On a base of constructed model, a point forecast of energy production for 2016 was made.