Applied aspects of proactive modeling of innovative-investment processes of complex hierarchical systems: enterprise–region–state

Abstract

The paper proposed a proactive mechanism of innovative activity management of complex hierarchical systems (CHS), consisting of successive stages of assessment, analysis, planning, forecasting and innivative activities regulation at the levels of an enterprise - a region – the state. Specific tasks of the proposed mechanism require model support, in connection with which the author has developed a set of models for the proactive innovation management SYSTEM. The valuation models and analysis of the innovation capacity and innovation outcomes of socio-economic system of a region (SESR), which allow, in contrast to the existing models, to compare the results of innovation activities and innovation potential and to make a conclusion about the effectiveness of the existing potentia use are built. The model of evaluation of innovative projects of business-industrial structures (BIS) efficiency based on the use of fuzzy set theory and methods of multicriteria problems solution, which allow to consider the risks arising at each stage of the innovation life cycle. The set of models of economic evaluation of SESR innovative activities based on panel data, which allows to estimate the resource use efficiency in the implementation of innovative activities and to predict the consequences of managerial decisions on stimulation of innovative activities is proposed. The simulation model scenarios of stimulation of SESR innovative activity, which allowed the simulation of scenarios to stimulate and assess their performance in order to select the best scenario of innovation regional systems according to the criteria of profit maximization, maximizing the number of innovative-active BIS and maximize the gains integrated assessment of SESR innovative activity results are designed. The simulation results allowed to determine the best scenario for promoting regional systems and the state as a whole.