Інформаційна технологія оцінки ризиків програмних проектів

Abstract

Problem of software projects risks evaluation is identified. Review of modern approaches to risks evaluation is carried out. Analysis of software projects risks evaluation methods is performed. Analysis of sensitivity, scenarios method, simulation modeling, expert assessment are reviewed. Conclusions on importance of risks evaluation for "software as a service" software application systems at design stage are performed. It's proposed to perform software projects risks evaluation with expert assessment using by realization of corresponding information technology. Mathematically risks evaluation technology is realized by Delphi method and ranking. Term of confidence interval is used as stopover criterion in computational procedure of Delphi method with the goal of coherent expert opinion obtaining. Calculating procedure envisages initial expert data correction by expert opinions revision and correction of expert group personnel. Consistency of expert opinions in mathematical technology on ranking method is checking with using of Kendall concordance coefficient, and its significance is evaluating on the basis of Pearson criterion. Presented mathematical apparatus formalizes solution of risks evaluation problem. Methods of software projects risks evaluation and theirs mathematical technologies requires a big amount of calculating operations. Information support increases the rate and precision of such operations, ensures initial data and obtained results accumulation. Information support of software projects risks evaluation is realized as software application system. At development of software application system functional and nonfunctional requirements, database model and its structure were defined. Principles of object oriented analysis, data modeling, modern design patterns, CASE software tools were used. It's proposed to realize software application system of information technology in accordance with client-server architecture, dedicated application server with distributed access rights with using of IDE NetBeans by PHP means under MySQL control. Conclusions on possibility of software application system using by performed validation and verification with expertise and PHPUnit using are made. Results of this work may be used for development of software projects risks evaluation information technology