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Публікація Improvement of financial instruments of the agricultural sector and food security efficiency increasing(Economic Research Institute at BAS (Bulgarian Academy of Sciences), 2023) Serhiienko, Olena; Tatar, Maryna; Guryanova, Lidiya; Shapran, Olena; Bril, MykhailoThe methodical toolbox of lending to entities in the agricultural sector provides three levels of hierarchy management interaction – macro, meso and micro levels (state – region – agricultural enterprises) on the bases of the complex usage of economic and mathematical models and which contains six interrelated and sequential blocks was proposed. The method of agricultural enterprises crediting improvement is implemented in accordance with the strategic position of lending to agricultural enterprises through targeted support and the creditworthiness level, which can solve the following problems: observation and evaluation of the financial and economic indicators; classification of enterprises, recognition, and identification of enterprises in terms of creditworthiness; assessment of the differences between classes given dimension enterprises.Публікація Personnel material motivation and its effect on enterprise economic processes(University of national and world economy, 2018) Gaponenko, Olga; Sergienko, Olena; Tatar, MarynaThe indicators system characterizing the personnel financial motivation and enterprises economic processes is improved. These indicators unlike existing fragmentary indicators take into account wages efficiency indicators such as profitability / yield payroll, the cost of wages and wages level (in total production costs) next with the stablished directions of productive resources usage for quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the state of these phenomena at the macro level. The developed methodical approach to the calculation of personnel material payouts involves the determination of additional pay on the bases of proposed labor contribution rate, which takes into account labor costs without the use of invariant scales and size of incentive and compensation payments by a corresponding coefficient whose value depends on value of certain assessment factors, which makes possible to create conditions for wages part objective formation.Публікація Analysis of the dynamics of Europe stock markets development(Fintechalliance LLC, 2023) Serhiienko, Olena; Bril, Mykhailo; Baranova, Valeria; Tatar, Maryna; Bilotserkivskyi, OleksandrThe article proposes a complex of economic and mathematical models of assessment, analysis, and forecasting of the world stock indices development state for effective management of investment flows. The modern concept and strategy of European countries’ stock market development were considered, and the existing methods of diagnosing the stock market development level were analyzed. ARIMA models were built and spectral analysis of the main world indices was carried out. The possible trends in the stock indices development for the future period were analyzed using predictive models. It makes it possible to determine directions for improving the stock market efficiency and investment strategies in modern conditions.The proposed set of models for evaluation, analysis, and forecasting of the world stock indices state can be used to test various trading strategies and to test various hypotheses in relation to the entire stock portfolio of a particular company or to one stock index. The results of the research can be used in the development of theoretical provisions and methodological tools for evaluating the global stock market effectiveness in modern conditions and development trends in local markets.Публікація Applied aspects of proactive modeling of innovative-investment processes of complex hierarchical systems: enterprise–region–state(Ljubljana School of Business, Slovenia, 2020) Sergienko, Olena; Tatar, Maryna; Bilotserkivskyi, Oleksandr; Baranova, ValeriaThe paper proposed a proactive mechanism of innovative activity management of complex hierarchical systems (CHS), consisting of successive stages of assessment, analysis, planning, forecasting and innivative activities regulation at the levels of an enterprise - a region – the state. Specific tasks of the proposed mechanism require model support, in connection with which the author has developed a set of models for the proactive innovation management SYSTEM. The valuation models and analysis of the innovation capacity and innovation outcomes of socio-economic system of a region (SESR), which allow, in contrast to the existing models, to compare the results of innovation activities and innovation potential and to make a conclusion about the effectiveness of the existing potentia use are built. The model of evaluation of innovative projects of business-industrial structures (BIS) efficiency based on the use of fuzzy set theory and methods of multicriteria problems solution, which allow to consider the risks arising at each stage of the innovation life cycle. The set of models of economic evaluation of SESR innovative activities based on panel data, which allows to estimate the resource use efficiency in the implementation of innovative activities and to predict the consequences of managerial decisions on stimulation of innovative activities is proposed. The simulation model scenarios of stimulation of SESR innovative activity, which allowed the simulation of scenarios to stimulate and assess their performance in order to select the best scenario of innovation regional systems according to the criteria of profit maximization, maximizing the number of innovative-active BIS and maximize the gains integrated assessment of SESR innovative activity results are designed. The simulation results allowed to determine the best scenario for promoting regional systems and the state as a whole.Публікація Diagnosis of Raider Capture to Ensure Business Entities Economic Security in the Conditions of Modern Challenges(University of national and world economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2020) Sergienko, Olena; Tatar, Maryna; Bilotserkivskyi, Oleksandr; Stepurina, SvitlanaThe analysis of economic entities interaction for counteraction to raiding is carried out, stages of raiding development in Ukraine and their characteristics are determine, resonant raider attacks in Ukraine during various global challenges and imbalances are analyzed. The aggregation of factors and parameters of threats to economic entities security in relation to raiding counteraction is carried out. The approaches and estimation methods of factors and parameters of raider capture threats are analyzed. The influence of threat parameters on the enterprises raider capture risk is assessed and the influence of parameters which characterize the raiding threats on the q-Tobin index, which characterizes the investment attractiveness, is determined.Публікація Risk assessment of innovative projects: development of forecasting models(2021) Gorokhovatskyi, Volodymyr; Sergienko, Olena; Sosnov, Igor; Tatar, Maryna; Shapran, EvgeniyThe purpose of this article is development a systematic dynamic complex model of generation and risk assessment of innovative project, on the bases of which a scenario modeling of many risks influence arising at certain stages of project implementation in the target area. For article purpose realization, the paper proposes a complex toolkit for modeling the innovative projects risks in the direction of their impact on performance indicators in scenarios, which involves the implementation of the following stages of modeling: Stage 1. Collection and processing of project data; Stage 2. Evaluation of innovation project efficiency indicators; Stage 3. Formation and assessment of many risks of innovation project by components, nature and impact strength; Stage 4. Modeling of innovative project development scenarios. The implemented set of models makes possible to compare all components of efficiency and riskiness, which determine the integrated aggregate level of project risk by components of life cycle risks, target project risks and scenarios depending on environmental factors and managers propensity to take risks, and solves the problem of positioning the real indicators state of innovation project efficiency in a comparative dynamic context based on three-level assessment, due to structural elements of risks and identification of possible and promising deadlines and time horizons by stages of the project life cycle, critical paths and reserves which allow us to achieve the main goal of improving the innovative projects implementation efficiency.Публікація Model Tools of Credit Risks Assessment of Agricultural Enterprises in International Trade(2020) Nashchekina, O. N.; Sergienko, Olena; Sosnov, Igor; Tatar, Maryna; Shapran, EvgeniyThe paper aim is improving the methodological tools for agricultural enterprise's credit risks assessment and classification as participant of international trade market. The proposed approach differs from the existing approaches by complexity and systematicness, on the bases of usage of multilevel factor system of the borrower's assessment by local and aggregate components. The object of research is set of credit risks affecting crediting processes in agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy. The following economic and mathematical methods of scientific research were used: factor and comparative analysis (to highlight classification specific features of agricultural sector crediting), methodology of integrated rating (for rating of local components of risk), methods of factor analysis (to confirm the hypothesis of grouping of agricultural enterprises credit risks by components), hierarchical and iterative methods of cluster analysis (to distinguish agricultural enterprises classes by risk level). The proposed methodology is tested on a sample set of observations for 14 agricultural enterprises of Ukraine for 2018 year for the selected 38 credit risk indicators. On the bases of economic and mathematical tools for estimating and analyzing the aggregate system of agricultural enterprises credit risk indicators, namely the methodology of factor analysis, the hypothesis regarding the grouping and formation of agricultural enterprises credit risk classes has been improved. Five major systemic groups of external and internal risks which are specific to agrarian enterprises are identified: mortgage risks, system providing risks, system forming risks, natural and climatic risks, production risks. The obtained classes by risk level by the studied components on the basis of cluster analysis methods make possible to determine the set of critical and safe states in general and by local components and to choose effective behavior trajectory for agricultural enterprise creditworthiness increasing. The assessment results using proposed methodology laid in the bases of scenarios development of agricultural sector lending, make possible to develop a set of measures for strategic and tactical management of agricultural enterprise's creditworthiness and adjust their behavior in international markets.