Estimation of the innovative projects investment potential at the machine builders (evidence from LLC "Turbomash")

Abstract

The object of the article is to investigate methodic approach to modeling and formalized estimation of the innovative projects investment potential at the machine builders at different stages of innovative cycle. Methodic. The suggested methodic approach foresees integration: adaptive model of the detailed multifactorial operative analysis concerning innovative project efficiency, features priority of which is determined by relative dispersion formal method, allowing to estimate project efficiency probability; trinomial model of the costs formation at the innovative projects stages, observed in view of pessimistic, average and optimistic approaches. Scientific results. The practically oriented methodic of the innovative projects deep analysis is developed generally and at separate stages in its realization. It allows to estimate probability of their realization efficiency considering alternative actions development. The suggested methodic approach use gives ability to evaluate investment attractiveness of the innovative project introduced both by machine building and other economic branches enterprises, considering specific and structure of costs through expected financial result calculation. The calculated factors with its help allow to evaluate quantitively reasonability to introduce concrete innovative projects, to control innovative activity of the enterprises, particularly at the stage of decision making in their realization. And this in its turn, allows to decrease risk to make inadequate managerial decisions, to increase efficiency of the investment-innovative activity management. Practical importance. Approbation of the suggested methodic approach at the machine builder LLC "Turbomash" during analysis of the innovative project investment attractiveness confirms its practical importance and adequacy. Authors’ investigations can be introduced into practice to control enterprises investment-innovative activity.