Системный анализ рисков, связанных с возникновением чрезвычайных и аварийных ситуаций на промышленных предприятиях

Abstract

Safety management of complex systems involves solving a set of issues related to the assessment and analysis of risks initiated by emergency situations. This involves diagnosing and assessing the state of the system under conditions of incomplete, uncertain, inaccurate and contradictory initial information. Currently, the point of view, according to which the probabilistic mechanism is considered as the only possible model of uncertainty, has been strongly criticized. This leads to the need to search for non-stochastic models of uncertainty. In this context, the so-called game approach to identification and control is becoming increasingly common.