Assessment of prospects for obtaining forced reparations for russian aggression in Ukraine

Abstract

According to the authors' estimates, russian aggression from 2014 till the beginning of 2024 has already caused Ukraine losses of at least 2 trillion USD in nominal terms, and that number continues to rise. To date, russians show no signs of regret for their actions, and won’t pay reparations voluntarily. Ukraine and the international community will have to forcefully collect from the aggressor, which has one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, a huge amount of money, which exceeds its annual GDP. The first source of compensations is the confiscation of already frozen russian state assets and private assets of sanctioned individuals, worth about 400 billion USD. Another 170 to 230 billion USD of "dirty" russian money is stored in Swiss banks. Currently, their freezing and confiscation are unlikely, but this may change in the future. The authors suggest two more sources of funds for reparations: real estate and other property of the USSR, which russia illegally appropriated after its collapse, and the deductions from the sale of natural resources abroad. If all these sources will be used, it will take about 20 years to pay the whole amount of reparations, including interest.